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BULLETIN ITEM: NOAA Joins MWM In Predicting: El Nino weather pattern forms in Pacific
MWM: I stuck my neck out before they did! In the article below they have a couple of things not right. One is that most likely the biggest factor in the mild hurricane season in the Atlantic has to do much more with the normalized Gulf temperature and the anomalously hot North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. All the prime suck patterns were changed favoring cross sheer to prevent the build up of the vortex strength. Also, PRACTICALLY ZIP help from ionic flows from the Sun. There was tremendous help last year for Katrina and the one before it, if you will remember. Almost none this year. Ionic flow expands the atmosphere, creating UP suck to strengthen voxtec formation. No UP suck, weaker storm fronts. Also also, the El Nino formation is not strong enough yet to have had such an impact posited by NOAA. Having said that I do believe that the El Nino is coming along quite briskly, the most briskly since the1997/98 El Nino. Accordingly I have some suspicions that we can in fact "lean" predictively towards a vigorous El Nino, but I also suspect, because of plateauing of solar conditions at low and flat line during last two years of volcanic conditions, that this El Nino might not be as vigorous as the 97/98. My only hesitation in forecasting about this is that we are pretty blind to what is actually happening within the ocean depths and the East Pacific Rise. We do know that the Mid Indian Rise has generated a lot of heat during the last two years and we also know that the East Paciific Rise has been pretty vigorous seismically during the past two years, so, this may be a key indicator which points to a lot of underwater volcanism there and thus a very vigorous El Nino. We shall see what we shall see.
From: "Ian"
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2006 23:35:21 -0700
Subject: [phoenix-quest] El Nino
Print this article Close This Window
El Nino weather pattern forms in Pacific
Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:19 PM ET
By Rene Pastor
NEW YORK (Reuters) - El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters
in the Pacific Ocean that wreaks havoc with world weather conditions, has
formed and will last into 2007, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration said on Wednesday.
The El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic hurricane season
milder than expected, said a forecaster for the NOAA.
"The weak El Nino is helping to explain why the hurricane season is
less than we expected. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in the
Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for NOAA.
The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said the El Nino probably
will spur warmer-than- average temperatures this winter over western and
central Canada and the western and northern United States.
It said El Nino also will cause wetter-than- average conditions in the
U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and spark dry conditions in the Ohio valley,
the Pacific Northwest and most U.S. islands in the tropical Pacific.
In Asia and South America, the last severe El Nino killed hundreds of
people and caused billions of dollars in damage as crops shriveled across
the Asia-Pacific basin. This El Nino has caused drier-than-average
conditions across Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.
Indonesia is the most populous Moslem country with over 200 million
people, while the Philippines have nearly 90 million. Both are major
importers of U.S. grains.
The CPC Web site said surface temperatures were substantially warmer
than normal by early September in the Pacific. Scientists detect formation
of El Ninos by monitoring sea surface temperatures with a system of buoys.
"Currently, weak El Nino conditions exist, but there is a potential
for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," Vernon
Kousky, the chief El Nino expert at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said
in a statement.
"The latest...prediction s indicate El Nino conditions for the
remainder of 2006 and into the northern hemisphere spring (of) 2007," the
CPC Web site explained.
El Nino, which means 'little boy' in Spanish, hits once every three
years or so. Anchovy fishermen in South America noticed the phenomenon in
the 19th century and named it for the Christ child since it appeared around
Christmas, and it normally peaks late in the year.
EL NINO HINDERS HURRICANES
One immediate impact of the El Nino is during the current Atlantic
hurricane season, which follows on the heels of the record 28 storms and 15
hurricanes which struck in 2005.
Last year's howlers included monsters like Hurricanes Katrina, Rita
and Wilma. But this El Nino apparently has helped hinder storm formation in
2006. So far, there has only been seven tropical storms and two hurricanes
halfway through the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November
30.
Scientists said El Ninos disrupt storm formation because it allows
wind shear to rip apart thunderstorms in the center of the hurricanes,
reducing power and intensity as a result.
U.S. NORTHEAST IN FOR MILDER WINTER
An El Nino also usually leads to milder winter weather in the U.S.
northeast, the top heating oil market in the world.
Bell said scientists will have a better idea in the fall how long this
El Nino will last. "There's no way to say at this time how strong it is
going to be. It's too early," he said.
The last severe El Nino struck in 1997/98. The weather phenomenon
caused searing drought in Indonesia, Australia and the Philippines while
causing rampant flooding in Ecuador and Chile, the world's top producer of
copper.
The NOAA's climate prediction Web site is:
<www.cpc. ncep.noaa. gov/products/ analysis_ monitoring/ enso_advisory/ index.html>www.cpc. ncep.noaa. gov/products/ analysis_ monitoring/ enso_advisory/ index.html
MWM: I stuck my neck out before they did! In the article below they have a couple of things not right. One is that most likely the biggest factor in the mild hurricane season in the Atlantic has to do much more with the normalized Gulf temperature and the anomalously hot North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. All the prime suck patterns were changed favoring cross sheer to prevent the build up of the vortex strength. Also, PRACTICALLY ZIP help from ionic flows from the Sun. There was tremendous help last year for Katrina and the one before it, if you will remember. Almost none this year. Ionic flow expands the atmosphere, creating UP suck to strengthen voxtec formation. No UP suck, weaker storm fronts. Also also, the El Nino formation is not strong enough yet to have had such an impact posited by NOAA. Having said that I do believe that the El Nino is coming along quite briskly, the most briskly since the1997/98 El Nino. Accordingly I have some suspicions that we can in fact "lean" predictively towards a vigorous El Nino, but I also suspect, because of plateauing of solar conditions at low and flat line during last two years of volcanic conditions, that this El Nino might not be as vigorous as the 97/98. My only hesitation in forecasting about this is that we are pretty blind to what is actually happening within the ocean depths and the East Pacific Rise. We do know that the Mid Indian Rise has generated a lot of heat during the last two years and we also know that the East Paciific Rise has been pretty vigorous seismically during the past two years, so, this may be a key indicator which points to a lot of underwater volcanism there and thus a very vigorous El Nino. We shall see what we shall see.
From: "Ian"
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2006 23:35:21 -0700
Subject: [phoenix-quest] El Nino
Print this article Close This Window
El Nino weather pattern forms in Pacific
Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:19 PM ET
By Rene Pastor
NEW YORK (Reuters) - El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters
in the Pacific Ocean that wreaks havoc with world weather conditions, has
formed and will last into 2007, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration said on Wednesday.
The El Nino has already helped make the Atlantic hurricane season
milder than expected, said a forecaster for the NOAA.
"The weak El Nino is helping to explain why the hurricane season is
less than we expected. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane activity in the
Atlantic," said Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster for NOAA.
The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said the El Nino probably
will spur warmer-than- average temperatures this winter over western and
central Canada and the western and northern United States.
It said El Nino also will cause wetter-than- average conditions in the
U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, and spark dry conditions in the Ohio valley,
the Pacific Northwest and most U.S. islands in the tropical Pacific.
In Asia and South America, the last severe El Nino killed hundreds of
people and caused billions of dollars in damage as crops shriveled across
the Asia-Pacific basin. This El Nino has caused drier-than-average
conditions across Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.
Indonesia is the most populous Moslem country with over 200 million
people, while the Philippines have nearly 90 million. Both are major
importers of U.S. grains.
The CPC Web site said surface temperatures were substantially warmer
than normal by early September in the Pacific. Scientists detect formation
of El Ninos by monitoring sea surface temperatures with a system of buoys.
"Currently, weak El Nino conditions exist, but there is a potential
for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," Vernon
Kousky, the chief El Nino expert at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said
in a statement.
"The latest...prediction s indicate El Nino conditions for the
remainder of 2006 and into the northern hemisphere spring (of) 2007," the
CPC Web site explained.
El Nino, which means 'little boy' in Spanish, hits once every three
years or so. Anchovy fishermen in South America noticed the phenomenon in
the 19th century and named it for the Christ child since it appeared around
Christmas, and it normally peaks late in the year.
EL NINO HINDERS HURRICANES
One immediate impact of the El Nino is during the current Atlantic
hurricane season, which follows on the heels of the record 28 storms and 15
hurricanes which struck in 2005.
Last year's howlers included monsters like Hurricanes Katrina, Rita
and Wilma. But this El Nino apparently has helped hinder storm formation in
2006. So far, there has only been seven tropical storms and two hurricanes
halfway through the hurricane season, which begins June 1 and ends November
30.
Scientists said El Ninos disrupt storm formation because it allows
wind shear to rip apart thunderstorms in the center of the hurricanes,
reducing power and intensity as a result.
U.S. NORTHEAST IN FOR MILDER WINTER
An El Nino also usually leads to milder winter weather in the U.S.
northeast, the top heating oil market in the world.
Bell said scientists will have a better idea in the fall how long this
El Nino will last. "There's no way to say at this time how strong it is
going to be. It's too early," he said.
The last severe El Nino struck in 1997/98. The weather phenomenon
caused searing drought in Indonesia, Australia and the Philippines while
causing rampant flooding in Ecuador and Chile, the world's top producer of
copper.
The NOAA's climate prediction Web site is:
<www.cpc. ncep.noaa. gov/products/ analysis_ monitoring/ enso_advisory/ index.html>www.cpc. ncep.noaa. gov/products/ analysis_ monitoring/ enso_advisory/ index.html
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